The theory of black swans applied to internet, preventing effect

The theory of black swans applied to internet, preventing effect

From time to time I like to do a very curious exercise: grab some relevant theories of gurus, authors and marketers made famous a few years ago, before the internet almost all new theories, and transfer to a current scenario.

Why do I do this? Two options:

– I’m a nerd and I get bored a lot.

– I find that some of these theories can be applied to internet and learn with it (I prefer the second).

The theory of black swans applied to internet, preventing effectWhat is the theory of black swans?

This theory formulated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb us is to say that a black “event” swan is one that appears by surprise and has a great impact on the ecosystem in which it moves. To be able to consider a black swan has to meet:

  • It is an unexpected event for the observer.
  • The event has a great impact.
  • Once it happened rationalizes like this could have happened.

This theory can be applied to social, economic, and political issues as Internet

The theory of applied internet black swans

How do you think you can apply this theory to the Internet world? Here are some examples:

  • The “almost” monopoly of Google in some countries.
  • The emergence of Facebook and social networks.
  • The emergence of smartphones and their widespread use.
  • The phenomenon of blogging worldwide.

All this could be black swans, have a great impact and viewed with perspective seems so logical that all this happened.

Keys to consider environment to this theory

Observing all this would score some keys that I find interesting:

  1. High adaptability to major changes: Issues like social networks really are very new and instead there are a few professionals who seem a lifetime with this. Why does this occur? Simply because there are “early adopters” who embrace as no changes and make them play in their favor. The “black swans” can pose great opportunities.
  2. “Do not put all your eggs in one basket” seen that nothing is certain, diversifies your risk. For example: What happened when Google launched its updates Panda or Penguin changing the entire SEO scenario? Quite simply, many lost all their business websites built with effort for years. Those who worked other avenues of income apart from Google were saved from the “burning”.
  3. Looking forward: this is the most complicated but sometimes can be predicted major changes provided we have the good location context.

As you can see, the future is uncertain and the “black swans” lie in wait to change the rules of the game and challenge the “status quo” of many companies. No one is safe progress, the evolution of technology and the “reasonable” acts of God.

Do you think it is good to consider black swans on the internet?

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