The expectations of the Marketing Directors continue to show negative values for the 2nd semester of this year, and are especially negative for the advertising sector.
The data of this wave of the Index, refer to the estimates of the marketing directors of the panel for the second semester of this year, in comparative values to the almost available results of the first half.
The first thing would be to see bad values, but less bad than those of the previous wave, in terms of forecasting the total market and a quasi stabilization in terms of own sales. However, the estimation of advertising investment is aggravated, which is also reflected by the sector’s own forecast of “means” in its revenues.
But we better go to the breakdown of these values, which are simple numerical aggregation, that is to say unweighted, of the seven sectors of activity analyzed. To review in these breakdowns, with special attention:
a) The marked dispersion of the accumulated data following the detailed analysis of each one of these sectors of activity. Specifically we have in the estimation of total sales of the market, from a very strong decline (“minus 9”) in technological equipment, to a very slight drop (only “minus 2”) in finance / insurance. That is, there are markets in which it seems that the bottom has been reached, while in others there is still room for “adjustment”.
b) Even more remarkable is the dispersion in the estimate of the sales progress of the company itself: while finance / insurance shows optimism (“plus 7”), in the media negative results are still estimated (“minus 4” ).
c) Where we only have bad omens is in advertising investment, with even very negative estimates in three segments that are key to the above & below business: automotive, technological equipment and, even, energy. In these cases, the level of “minus 10” is exceeded.
In short, the crisis is still very, very present in the expectations of sectors really important for economic activity in this country. On the side of the “outbreaks”, or in general search for signs of improvement, just review the anticipation of better forecasts we have in Finance / Insurance. This leaves us a glimmer of certain optimism for our next wave of expectations, if that sector actually acts as a benchmark for the future.